Cue The Weekend Flight to Safety

While there are no new bank failures in play, financial markets have traumatic memories from last Friday and last weekend.  Better safe than sorry heading into 2 days without the ability to react defensively to any significant developments in the banking world.  European shares are leading the flight to safety so far this morning and that's spilling over into Treasuries (in a good way for rates) even though US stocks are doing a much better job of holding their ground. In the chart below, notices the sharpest move and biggest retracement of yesterday's range in Germany's DAX equities index.  While it's not pictured, EU sovereign debt is following in lock step with lower yields, and that's pulling US yields lower to start the day.  US stocks are trying to rise above it all, and are actually doing an OK job so far.  If they end up acquiescing to the flight-to-safety, it would likely only help Treasuries.  
http://dlvr.it/Sl36F9

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Crypto Escrow, Technology, Non-Warrantable Condo Products; Investor Updates, Mergers and Employment News

Image
Julie C. writes, “Did you know that every “c” in “Pacific Ocean” is pronounced differently?” As I head to Northern California, which borders the Pacific, this morning, I recalled this thought: “Sometimes you meet someone and you know from the first moment that you want to spend your whole life without them.” I am sure that people don’t feel that way about loanDepot’s Anthony Hsieh, although the LD board of directors is wary. Recall that Anthony was forced out of his position as Executive Chairman a month ago, but given that he’s the founder of the company, and still a large stockholder, he has sway and was in the news this week about “shaking up” LD’s board. (More loanDepot and other wholesaler news below… remember Impac Funding?) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by SimpleNexus, an nCino company and homeownership platform that unites the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process into one seamless, end-to-end solution that spans engagement, origina
Read more

Wholesaler Wanted; PPE, DSCR, Marketing, AVM Products; FHA, Ginnie News; Listings on the Rise!

Image
This morning I head to Kansas, greeted by the news that Southwest is raising drink fees for the holidays. Has the “Let’s circle back after the holidays” season officially begun in your office or in your meetings with vendors? Chortles aside, one of the discussion topics in KC will certainly be the impending move in credit prices as lenders everywhere move toward charging borrowers up front. Whether the cost change is driven by Fair Isacc or the credit bureaus, and then being passed along by the CRAs, it doesn’t matter. It’s coming, and the jungle drums are saying the price changes will impact soft credit pulls, which (or course) many lenders implemented to reduce their costs with the amount of credit reports run as it’s cheaper than the full hard credit pull. Some lenders may use Freddie or Fannie AUS. (Today’s podcast can be found here, sponsored by LoanCare, the mortgage subservicer known for delivering superior customer experience through personalization and convenience. Its award-w
Read more

CPI Coming in Hot. Bonds Feeling The Burn

Image
It is a very straightforward morning for the bond market, but not in any sort of pleasant way.  There was a lot at stake heading into today's inflation data and the results carried clear implications for bonds.  Sadly, the implications are not great.  Core monthly inflation came in at 0.4% versus a 0.3% forecast.  Year over year numbers stayed at 3.9% rather than falling to the 3.7% forecast (extra decimals in the underlying numbers explain why we can see a 0.2% miss in annual but only a 0.1% miss in monthly).  Bonds shot higher immediately and somewhat significantly--easily breaking the 4.19% ceiling in 10yr Treasury yields.   This only increases the burden of proof on downbeat economic data to hearken a turning point in inflation. With a strong jobs report in the rearview, we're basically starting at square one. http://dlvr.it/T2hb0r
Read more